Paul Seixas’ Next Move Could Reshape Pro Cycling’s Transfer Market

Paul Seixas has given Decathlon CMA CGM a compelling reason to build its future around him. The 20-year-old finished fourth at this year’s Tour de France, then won Il Lombardia, the final Monument of the year. Those results have sharpened interest in his next contract: his current deal ends next year, and several well-resourced teams appear ready to pursue him.

One big win doesn’t settle the question of what Seixas will become. Still, Il Lombardia made it easier to imagine him as a future Grand Tour leader, and that possibility is already shaping team plans. Comparisons with Tadej Pogačar add to the attention, but the comparison remains a projection. Seixas is 20, and the evidence about his ceiling is still limited.

Decathlon’s clearest argument for keeping him is the strength of the group it is assembling. Ben O’Connor has won four Grand Tour stages and finished second in the 2024 Vuelta. Pavel Sivakov has been one of Pogačar’s most trusted climbing domestiques, while Laurens de Plus brings experience in a supporting role after his time with Netcompany INEOS. These are serious additions, and they follow a Tour campaign in which Decathlon’s support was solid, though not exceptional.

The signings also answer a practical need. Felix Gall and Gregor Mühlberger, two strong climbers, have moved to Lidl-Trek. Decathlon has had to replenish its climbing depth while showing Seixas that it can build a squad capable of protecting his ambitions. O’Connor and Sivakov, in particular, bring the sort of results and experience that can make a young leader’s case for staying more persuasive.

Rivals are building for more than one possibility

Lidl-Trek has added Igor Arrieta, Jordan Jegat, Georg Zimmermann, Filippo Ganna, Mühlberger and Gall. The purpose of that recruitment is open to interpretation. The team may be strengthening support for Juan Ayuso, whose first season there was disrupted by injury and brought two wins. Gall, second at the Giro and third at the Vuelta this year, could also share leadership duties with Ayuso. Or Lidl-Trek may be building a broader project with Seixas in mind. The roster gives the team options, but it doesn’t reveal which plan comes first.

Netcompany INEOS has a different problem: its roster needs a rider who can turn depth into results at the sport’s biggest races. The team recorded 36 wins this year, but just one came in a Grand Tour stage, Filippo Ganna’s Giro time trial victory. Ganna has since left, while 16 riders have departed or remain unsigned. Nine new riders had joined by the time of the source report, among them Michael Valgren, Harold Tejada, Javier Romo, Clément Champoussin and Markel Beloki. Several are strong climbers. The obvious question is who they’ll be supporting.

Oscar Onley, fourth at the 2025 Tour, is one possible answer. At 24, he has already shown he can contend near the front, though his prospects at the Tour’s very top remain uncertain. Netcompany co-founder and chief executive André Rogaczewski has said the team aims to win the Tour de France within five years, with help from AI. The technology may shape how a team prepares and races, but a result that ambitious still depends on having a rider capable of winning.

UAE Team Emirates–XRG appears to offer Seixas an established support structure and has been vocal about its interest. Yet joining would bring a leadership question with Isaac del Toro. Del Toro has been seen as Pogačar’s successor within the team, and both young riders could have reason to seek the leading role. Signing Seixas might strengthen UAE’s collection of young talent, but it could also leave the team managing competing ambitions. Whether either rider would welcome that arrangement is hard to know.

What Seixas’ decision could mean for the sport

My read is that Decathlon has a credible chance if it keeps investing in the people around Seixas and gives him a clear path to leadership. Staying with a French team could suit his development, especially if the squad continues to improve its climbing support. But performance and roster plans are only part of a contract decision; the available account also points to the possibility of Decathlon relocating to Switzerland in response to France’s tax burden.

The wider stakes reach beyond one rider. If Seixas signals that he wants to leave, Decathlon, Lidl-Trek, Netcompany INEOS and UAE could compete for him, with Remco Evenepoel’s Red Bull–BORA-hansgrohe also a possible suitor. That kind of contest can push salaries higher for leading riders and raise the spending required to assemble a team around them.

That may benefit Seixas and other top riders, but it could make the gap between the wealthiest teams and smaller outfits harder to bridge. Teams already operating with limited resources have less room to match a surge in rider costs. Decathlon keeping Seixas would not remove that pressure, but a contract that avoids setting off an extreme bidding contest could limit how quickly the market shifts.

For now, the strongest signal is Decathlon’s investment in experienced climbers and its need to convince Seixas that its ambitions match his. His next contract will show whether the team’s growing support group is enough to keep him, or whether the appeal of a different project proves stronger.